Speed trap? S&P 500 races past year-end targets

Too far, too fast for stocks? The S&P 500 has already topped the year-end price targets of 10 Wall Street strategists, raising fears that the market is approaching the Wall Street version of a speed trap. Trooper Anthony Whittington uses his laser radar gun to check for speeding drivers on June 8, 2007, in Wayne, W.Va. (File photo by Mollie Woody, AP)

It’s just June, but the stock market’s gains have exceeded the expectations many top Wall Street strategists had for the entire year. And that raises the risk the market may get tripped up by the Wall Street version of a speed trap.

The Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index’s June 9 record close of 1951.27 eclipses the year-end price targets of 10 stock strategists, or half of the 20 prognosticators polled by Bloomberg. Monday’s record high is 100 points, or more than 5%, above the lowest target of 1850 put forth at the start of the year by Wells Fargo’s Gina Martin Adams,  Deutsche Bank’s David Bianco and Barry Bannister of Stifel Nicolaus.

The bearish takeaway is that the stock market has hit its peak for the year and might even be at risk of giving up the gains it has already earned.

For those in the glass-half-full camp, there are still 10 top strategists that have targets that exceed the market’s recent peak. The most bullish call, for example, comes courtesy of Tony Dwyer of Canaccord. His target of 2185 for the S&P 500 equates to an additional gain of 12% for the benchmark index.

The average year-end price target is 1969, roughly 20 points, or 1%, above the S&P 500′s record close.

The $64,000 question is whether the mega-bulls or market skeptics have it right.

Here are the 2014-year-end targets of 20 Wall Street firms.

Firm                         2014 Close

Canaccord            2185     HIGH

Weeden                     2100

RBC                             2075

Credit Suisse           2020

Morgan Stanley     2014

Oppenheimer          2014

Bank of America    2000

Ameriprise              1982

BTIG                           1980

Citigroup                  1975

AVERAGE              1969

Jefferies                     1950

Scotiabank               1950

UBS                             1950

Nomura                     1925

Bank of Montreal   1900

Goldman Sachs       1900

HSBC                            1900

Deutsche Bank   1850     LOW

Stifel Nicolaus     1850     LOW

Wells Fargo            1850     LOW

Source: Bloomberg